Enrolment could change with demographics: statscan

Magally Zelaya, staff

In the midst of a nationwide demographic shift in the university-aged population, Statistics Canada recently released a report entitled “Post-secondary Enrolment Trends to 2031” that projects the outcome of three possible trends in participation rates in relation to the changing demographics.

As the effect of the echo boom fades (children of the baby boomers) the numbers in the 17-29 age group will begin to drop. According to the StatsCan study, the population of the echo boom cohort will peak in 2012 or 2013, at which point projections show a decline in the age group.

The study shows that 23 per cent of 17- to 29-year-olds in Canada enrolled full-time in post-secondary education in 2005-06. In Manitoba, that number is approximately 20 per cent.

The first of three scenarios examined by Statscan showed that in a status-quo scenario where participation rates (defined as the percentage of 17-29-year-olds that enroll in post-secondary education) remain the same, enrolment would increase steadily to 2012-13 and then would decline to hit a trough in 2025-26.

In a scenario where participation rates grow in line with the historical trends since 1990, Canadian university enrolment will peak later — in 2016-17. There would then be a plunge in enrolment to 2030-31 due to a smaller population of the age group in question.

In the third scenario, male participation rates (at 11.4 per cent in 2005-06) would increase to meet female rates (at 15.3 per cent in 2005-06). This would cause male university enrolment to increase dramatically until 2030-31, offsetting some of the enrolment decline expected as a result of the decrease in the university-aged population in 2012-13.

As of 2005, there were 806,000 post-secondary students in Canada, according to the association of universities and colleges of Canada (AUCC). The AUCC’s research shows that regardless of the participation levels, Canada will see an increase in enrolment in the 2006 to 2016 period.

According to the AUCC, if participation rates rise at a high level there is estimated to be an increase of 150,000 additional students. If participation rates rise at a low level there is estimated to be an increase of 70,000 students. If participation does not change, enrolment would still increase by 16,000.

In 2003, Canada placed 18th out of 27 nations in terms of full-time university participation of 19- to 22-year-olds with a rate of 23 per cent, according to a study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This was a drop of 16 places from the same study conducted in 1990 where Canada was second to only the United States.





Volume 95 Issue 15	The Official University of Manitoba Students' Newspaper Website	November 28, 2007

Home About Us Advertising Rates Contact Staff Current Issue PDF Employment Letters to the Editor Meet the Staff Online Archives Volunteer Online Classifieds St. Vincent's Academy Diaries	Font Size Respond Email Print-Friendly Enrolment could change with demographics: statscan Magally Zelaya, staff In the midst of a nationwide demographic shift in the university-aged population, Statistics Canada recently released a report entitled “Post-secondary Enrolment Trends to 2031” that projects the outcome of three possible trends in participation rates in relation to the changing demographics. As the effect of the echo boom fades (children of the baby boomers) the numbers in the 17-29 age group will begin to drop. According to the StatsCan study, the population of the echo boom cohort will peak in 2012 or 2013, at which point projections show a decline in the age group. The study shows that 23 per cent of 17- to 29-year-olds in Canada enrolled full-time in post-secondary education in 2005-06. In Manitoba, that number is approximately 20 per cent. The first of three scenarios examined by Statscan showed that in a status-quo scenario where participation rates (defined as the percentage of 17-29-year-olds that enroll in post-secondary education) remain the same, enrolment would increase steadily to 2012-13 and then would decline to hit a trough in 2025-26. In a scenario where participation rates grow in line with the historical trends since 1990, Canadian university enrolment will peak later — in 2016-17. There would then be a plunge in enrolment to 2030-31 due to a smaller population of the age group in question. In the third scenario, male participation rates (at 11.4 per cent in 2005-06) would increase to meet female rates (at 15.3 per cent in 2005-06). This would cause male university enrolment to increase dramatically until 2030-31, offsetting some of the enrolment decline expected as a result of the decrease in the university-aged population in 2012-13. As of 2005, there were 806,000 post-secondary students in Canada, according to the association of universities and colleges of Canada (AUCC). The AUCC’s research shows that regardless of the participation levels, Canada will see an increase in enrolment in the 2006 to 2016 period. According to the AUCC, if participation rates rise at a high level there is estimated to be an increase of 150,000 additional students. If participation rates rise at a low level there is estimated to be an increase of 70,000 students. If participation does not change, enrolment would still increase by 16,000. In 2003, Canada placed 18th out of 27 nations in terms of full-time university participation of 19- to 22-year-olds with a rate of 23 per cent, according to a study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This was a drop of 16 places from the same study conducted in 1990 where Canada was second to only the United States.


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