U of M keen to keep enrolment static

Magally Zelaya, staff

Statistics Canada is projecting an increase in the university-aged population followed by a decreasing trend to the year 2031. The specific dates and amount of student population change are dependent on the rate that the 18-24 year old age group participates in post-secondary studies as mapped out in the study “Post-Secondary Enrolment Trends to 2031”.

“It’s valid information, it’s certainly relevant, and it makes us think,” said the university’s vice-president (academic) and provost, Robert Kerr. Because the university cannot control demographics, Kerr said the university’s focus is on factors it can influence.

“It is true, we are going to see changes in demographics and we are going to have pay attention to that, but they’re not the single driver,” said Kerr.

Kerr said that a more accurate way to estimate enrolment is to look at 12 factors that combine in varying degrees to provide more accurate enrolment projections.

Citing the Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada (AUCC) Kerr listed parental education, family income, returns, tuition, student aid, international student demand, quality of programs, graduate enrolment, information, government investment, labour markets, and demographics as factors that affect enrolment to varying degrees.

“Demographics is only one of those 12 and it’s classified as having a mildly positive relationship to participation rates,” said Kerr.

With projections from Statistics Canada showing that the university age group of 18-24 will peak in Manitoba in 2014, then decline to 2026, and then increase again slightly to 2031, the university is working to make sure it doesn’t “get too many too quick, or too few too fast,” according to Richard Lobdell, vice-president (academic) and vice- provost (programs).

Currently 26,832 students are enrolled at the University of Manitoba.Lobdell said the university’s ideal enrolment number is 26,000 to 28,000 students. “If we get more than that on this campus it’s really hard . . . given our resources,” he said. “If we get fewer than that it’s a problem because [resources are] wasted, we’ve got extra spaces. So in a sense, we’re keen to maintain numbers around that level.”

Because tuition only covers on average 20 to 23 per cent of the cost of a student’s education, according to Lobdell, he said, “It’s a big help, but it doesn’t pay the full shot.”

“We’re kind of in a dilemma. On the one hand participation rates are too low on the other hand we’re a bit scared of getting successful. There’s a fine line,” he continued. The participation rate for Manitoba youth aged 17-29 was approximately 23 per cent in 2005-06, according to Statistics Canada.

He continued, “If people, whoever they are, young, old, whatever, if they want to do post-secondary studies and if there’s any reasonable chance that they can succeed, we have a kind of social obligation to make that possible.”

Kerr said the university would continue to focus on increasing enrolment of non-traditional learners (aboriginal students, new immigrants, adult learners) and of graduate students and international students, as it has traditionally done.

He added that the university is broadening its approach with a new focus on students in elementary and high schools where children can be introduced to the possibilities that a university education could afford them.

“It hasn’t been a tradition for universities to have very strong links with the high school or elementary school system,” said Kerr.

In Manitoba there are two ministers of education, one for the post-secondary system and one for the K-12 system. “We’ve made a separation, as if they’re two separate silos,” he continued. “We need to bridge across those silos.”

“What we might need is a more coordinated approach . . . [it’s] something that as a province we need to look at,” said Kerr.

In terms of future enrolment at the university, Lobdell said that the university is projecting “flatness.” He believes that in addition to focusing on recruitment, the focus needs to be on retention, “to make it more likely that [students] will actually finish their studies,” said Lobdell.

“For those students who really want to stay and are having troubles of one kind or another, the system ought to better at helping them overcome those troubles . . . we should be able to that,” he added.

A review of the current enrolment strategy that dictates the university’s capacity of approximately 26,000 students is currently under review by a Strategic Enrolment Management task force. The four-member task force chaired by David Morphy vice-president (student affairs) of Manitoba, will provide recommendations to the university on recruitment and retention strategies.