Enrolment can’t be projected: university

Magally Zelaya, staff

A long-term decline in the number of students graduating from high schools has not yet impacted the University of Manitoba in a significant way, according to the official 2007 fall term enrolment numbers released by the university’s office of institutional analysis on Nov. 6.

The report, current as of Nov. 1, shows that total enrolment at the U of M declined by 0.4 per cent from 26,931 to 26,832. Thelma Lussier, director of the office of institutional analysis, said that the drop of 99 students is minimal. “For all intents and purposes it’s really not much change,” she said.

Lussier points to the possibility of people taking a year off or “making other choices” as the reason and calls the change “system noise.”

A 1.7 per cent decrease in credit hours from 268,404 to 263,892 is attributed to the same, said Lussier. “It’s hard to say with any great precision the reason, but it’s related to the fact that we’re not seeing much increases [in enrolment].”

The university had projected a decrease in credit hours this academic year in the one to two per cent range. Credit hours will be evaluated again during the winter term to get the average for the year.

University 1 numbers increased three per cent — an amount Lussier called “a little bit.” Of the increase Lussier said, “It’s only 107 students.”

Fifty-four more graduate students are enrolled this year than were last year, a difference of 1.7 per cent. “We’ve seen a slight [0.8 per cent] decrease in undergraduate students, but there has also been an increase in graduate enrolment,” said Lussier.

When it comes to graduate studies, “any increase is probably significant,” according to Lussier. “Getting a graduate student — for them to make the decision to come here — is a more intensive process.”

As for future enrolment projections, Lussier said that changes past the next few years are unknown, as the university does not make long-term projections. “I don’t think we’ve tried to go beyond a few years for the moment,” said Lussier.

When asked if the university is projecting decreased enrolment Lussier said, “It will depend on the trend, whether we see more high school students, more high school graduates.” She continued, “It depends what we see.”

Based on short-term projections, which are made two or three years into the future and up to five years ahead if needed, Lussier said, “I don’t think we’re looking at a great increase. Maybe we might even hold our own, but that’s still up for grabs.”

Many factors come into play when making enrolment projections at the university level, including future immigration numbers, the number of adults returning and graduating from high school, the number of internationally educated students seeking degree-level re-certification, and the economic climate.

Demographics also play a role. Enrolment reports posted on the provincial government’s education website show a decrease in K-12 enrolment of 8.6 per cent from 2000 to 2006 and a decrease of 10 per cent in kindergarten enrolment from 2000 to 2005. The decreases will likely impact the number of students continuing their studies at the University of Manitoba in the coming years.

Lussier confirmed that there would be fewer students graduating from Grade 12 — a fact that might have an effect on university enrolment. “There will be an overall decline. The decline may not happen as quickly as we might have earlier anticipated, but in the end, in the long term, it’s still going to decline.”

For the next seven years, though, Statistics Canada is reporting that the university-aged population (18-24) will increase until the year 2014, at which time the trend of lower kindergarten enrolment could begin to affect post-secondary enrolment.

Lussier said that demographics are not as important as participation rates, which she said are “really the defining factor” when it comes to enrolment.

“If our participation goes up, we might go up a little. If the participation of the graduates goes down we might go down a little,” said Lussier. “In the short term we don’t see a large change.”

A decrease of 6.9 per cent in international students (who make up nine per cent of the university’s total enrolment) and a 7.3 per cent increase in distance and online education credit hours (making up five per cent of total credit hours) were also reported in the executive summary of fall 2007 term enrolment.