Where have the students gone?

University of Manitoba enrolment begins to decline

MAGALLY ZELAYA, STAFF

Fewer students are attending the U of M this year, according to numbers released Sept. 20 by the university’s office of institutional analysis. Total enrolment is down 0.1 per cent from 27,315 last year to 27,280 students this year, while total credit hours are down 1 per cent from 279,931 to 276,998.

Undergraduate and graduate enrolment also decreased by 0.2 per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively. These numbers are current as of the end of the course revision period this September.

One faculty showing positive change was University 1. The number of students in that faculty increased by 7.5 per cent. Three per cent of those were new students, and the remaining 4.5 per cent were students continuing in University 1 for a second year.

Susan Deane, manager of university relations with the Council of Post-Secondary Education (the division of government that funds universities and colleges) said that “projections are that there are going to be smaller and smaller groups of 18- to 23-year olds coming forward. That, of course, will have an impact on enrolment in post-secondary institutions.”

Enrolment in elementary and high schools has been declining for some time now as online reports posted by the provincial government show decreased enrolment at least since 2001 — the website only shows reports starting in 2000. Most important are the number of grade 12 graduates, but even those can vary without too much effect on university enrolment, as experts point out that the demographics are only a small part of the picture.

Thelma Lussier of the university’s office of institutional analysis calls it “a complex system where there [are] positive forces and negative forces and it’s hard to sort out how [they] impact the net change that you have.”

Regardless of the number of high school grads, the percentage of students who decide to pursue post-secondary education at the University of Manitoba straight out of high school varies year to year. Lussier said, “for the U of M that has varied over the years from 17 or 18 per cent up to 24 percent.”

Lussier lists economic climate (in a recession university enrolment almost necessarily increases), the number of adult learners, number of those retraining, tuition rebates, choice of which post-secondary institution to attend, level of debt aversion in prospective students, immigration, and international students among other reasons that impact any university’s enrolment apart from demographics.

Despite the varying factors that effect enrolment, universities must prepare for the decline that is beginning said Deane.

She suggested that the university would likely target “the untraditional learner and those that are underrepresented in the post-secondary system currently. It is the aboriginal community, it is the immigrants and refugees.” As well as the likelihood that they would “do a focus on graduate students [and] adult learners.”

“What that’s going to involve is accommodating the kind of needs to ensure their success. So, [for instance] weekend college, evening classes, smaller cohorts, more academic and other supports available, and language supports.”

Deane also pointed to the approach of targeting students while still in elementary and high school. “If they can engage them in [grades] five and six and take them around the university and get them to have a hands-on experience of what it could be, in terms of different professions, then you’ve actually got their interest.”

She named the University of Winnipeg’s Opportunity Fund, a tuition credit account that gives children credits for their academic achievements in school, which can later be cashed in towards tuition fees, as a good example of a creative way that reaches out to those who might otherwise miss out on a university education.

At the U of M, John Danakas director of public affairs said “demographically this is what we were projecting, It is good to see that we’re holding our own in that kind of demographic environment. The university is still attracting students and the increase in University 1 is a positive sign.”

The U of M’s current numbers were released on Sept. 25. These numbers should be considered preliminary until an official report, expected on Nov. 1, is released.