Baby-booming problems

JACQUES MARCOUX

Pop Quiz: what is the greatest threat Canadians will face in the next 30 years? If you answered “terrorism,” then you have fallen victim to the constant rhetoric from our neighbours down south. Unless, of course, if by terrorism you are referring to your grandmother and her bingo buddies.

According to Statistics Canada, one in eight Canadians is currently over the age of 65. If this trend continues, by the year 2026, that number will be one in five Canadians. Never in human civilization have the elderly lived so long, and the reasons for this phenomenon are obvious. Industrialized countries have seen their standard of living sky-rocket since the end of the Second World War due to unending economic growth, combined with drastic improvements in medicine.

At first glance this appears to be a very desirable situation. This is so until you consider that while we were passively knitting socks and feeding the pigeons, the fertility rate of developed countries crept up on us and has since been plummeting out of control. In fact, birth rates in Canada now average only 1.52 births per woman; yet a birth rate of 2.1 per cent is needed in order keep up with the natural death rate. With the social tide shifting due the efficient use of contraceptives, women have been consciously postponing pregnancy in order to secure their financial future and further their education.

The implications of this imminent threat to the stability of Canada are far-reaching, but one thing is certain: the burden of this demographic shift will fall squarely on the shoulders of the today’s youth and the generations to come. As the senior population grows, the demands on the health care system will grow accordingly, thus requiring more funding from shrinking numbers in the labour force. With a life expectancy of approximately 80 years, it is not uncommon for a person to be retired for as long they were active in the workforce. Doctors are even experiencing cases of people outliving their hip-replacements and requiring a second procedure!

According to a government report, it is estimated that Canadian Pension Plan contribution rates will have to rise to 14 per cent of earnings in order to pay out benefits in the year 2030. The downfall of this system is that it is those currently in the workforce who are subsidizing the retired; and should the trend continue, by the time Generation Y-ers reach retirement age, the pot will likely be empty.

As an immediate response to widespread labour shortages, the government has amended legislation that previously forced mandatory retirement in certain economic sectors, and has maintained an open-door policy on immigration. In Canada, sheer immigration numbers are the only reason why our population continues to grow. This having been said, the global demand for skilled immigrants is fierce, which has thus forced Canada to establish a very attractive and immigrant-friendly environment. This is not, however, a long-term solution to Canada’s problems. New immigrants have difficulty integrating into their communities and contributing to the workforce. To make things worse, often educated and skilled immigrants hold designations or degrees that are not recognized in North America, and as a result end up falling short of their full economic potential.

Among all developed countries, there is one exception: France. The French government, well known for its social programs and family friendly policies, has been extremely pro-active relative to other countries in attacking the issue of aging population. Over the past few years, France has been one of the only industrialized countries to reverse the trend of negative growth. In fact, they are experiencing what some have dubbed the “Bébé-Boom,” having raised their birth rates by just over 5%, with only more growth in sight. This growth in fertility rates can be attributed to the holistic family-friendly approach that French policymakers have adopted. Examples of this approach include subsidized day-care and better medical coverage, programs that lessen the burden of providing the basic needs of a child on would-be parents.

One might point out that the Canadian government has acted in the same way, but has not seen the same level of success. This is due in large part to the lack of collaboration between public funded initiatives and the private sector. In France, the private sector has recognized the importance of providing its workers with flexibility, more job security, and very generous maternity leaves. In contrast, the Canadian private sector is lagging behind, preferring to be reactive to whole issue.

According to a poll conducted by Retail Council of Canada, the biggest challenge companies are facing is the retention of skilled labour and the reduction of turnover rates. At the rate Manitoba graduates are fleeing out West, it should not be long until we see a dramatic change from the private sector finally closing in the gap with the efforts already put forth by the federal government. Otherwise, the Canadian government may have more than just terrorists to worry about.

Jacques Marcoux is a fourth-year commerce student.