It all starts at home

Climate change already visible in Canada arctic

ANDREW LODGE STAFF

ILLUSTRATION TED BARKER

Earlier this fall, a report commissioned by England’s Tony Blair caused perhaps the most significant stir yet among governments worldwide with respect to what many see as the impending catastrophe linked with climate change. In the report, former World Bank economist Sir Nicholas Stern clearly spelled out that, in addition to the disastrous ecological consequences of an artificially heated biosphere, a warmed planet could also cause a 20 per cent change in the global economy, exceeding even such economic crises as the Great Depression and the World Wars.

Stern’s report was no doubt all the more compelling (and fastidious) for governments not committed to fighting climate change, since the prime argument behind not aggressively tackling climate change is precisely that it would negatively affect the economy. Now, according to a leading economist, not doing something about climate change will in itself have negative long-term economic consequences.

Stern’s report sparked concern and uproar worldwide, yet another in a growing chorus of voices, both academic and grassroot, calling for serious steps to be taken to curb climate change. In the past week more than 22,000 people marched in London in response to the report and in advance of the Nov. 6-17 United Nations conference on environmental issues in Nairobi, Kenya.

Also in the past week, University of Manitoba researcher Dan Leitch debarked from the Canadian Coast Guard’s icebreaker, the CCGS Amundsen. Leitch had been at sea for six weeks as part of an ongoing mission to study climate change in the Canadian Arctic. The Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study (CASES), is a multi-university research group funded by NSERC to gather data on fluctuations in the Arctic environment, especially sea ice, to better understand if and how it’s changing. In particular, Leitch examines the role contaminants play in various aspects of the region and how the status of these contaminants is changing along with the climate.

“The main focuses this year were the Northwater Polynya and the Beaufort Sea, but the Northwest Passage, Foxe Basin, Gulf of Boothia, Davis Strait and some Labrador fjords were also studied intensively,” says Leitch. “It’s so beautiful up there and the opportunity to see such remote and amazing places makes it difficult to come back.”

The planet’s polar regions are of great importance to researchers looking into a vast array of ecological trends. What occurs there can be something of a looking-glass through which to see what will happen, in different ways, to the rest of the planet in the near future. In a CBC Radio interview, University of Victoria Arctic researcher Terry Prowse puts it this way: “We often refer to the Arctic as the bellwether, or the canary in the coal mine. Well, that canary is coughing. We’ve got to keep our eye on it, because 10

“If you talk to any local in the North, there is no doubt that climate change is happening. They talk of animals that have shown up in recent years that local languages have no word for, because they are usually only found in warmer climates.” — Dan Leitch.

years in the Arctic is what we’re going to get 30 years down the road [further south].”

In the past several years, voices of Inuit residents of Nunavut, reported in the Iqaluit-based Nunatsiaq News, have been pointing to rapid and increasing changes to the world in which they live in, and to which they are acutely interconnected. For Leitch, a relative newcomer to the Arctic, signs of change are nonetheless visible everywhere.

“I have seen areas of incredible permafrost melt and coastal erosion, both of which have been increasing lately. On this passage of the Northwest Passage, we barely saw any ice at all, which I understand is quite rare for the end of October.”

Leitch and the CASES crew were aboard the last ship to pass through the Fury and Hecla straight — “and we didn’t even see any ice. Normally the strait is impassable even in the middle of the summer, according to our captain who’s been working up there for 20-odd years. We also passed through the narrow Bellot Strait” — the northernmost part of continental North America — “which is also normally packed with ice.”

Time spent on the Amundsen does not mean being perpetually at sea. Leitch and other members of the crew had the opportunity to visit several communities along the way. Over and over again, he hears similar stories: “In Labrador, we saw 11 polar bears in one fjord. Locals tell us that even 20 years ago, polar bears were almost never seen there. They blame the lack of sea ice for pushing them on land. If you talk to any local in the North, there is no doubt that climate change is happening. They tell stories of hunters falling through the ice because it is thinner, there is less of it, and it is much more unpredictable. They also talk of animals that have shown up in recent years that local languages have no word for, because they are usually only found in warmer climate.”

The idea of drastic climate change has now reached an unprecedented near-unanimity within the scientific community. In addition, while it's been an ongoing issue for some time, climate change is now fully mainstream; polls, both nationally and on the global stage, repeatedly show people showing greater concern for environmental issues. And in recent years, the alarming concept of a “tipping point,” a point past which there is no return, soto- speak — has become accepted parlance. Where that tipping point lays (or whether it has already been superseded for that matter) is still very much up for debate, but its existence is becoming increasingly recognized.

Earlier this year, American based NASA’s chief climate scientist James Hansen, in an interview with Time magazine, suggested that “we are getting close to a tipping point, despite the fact that most people barely notice the warming yet. We have witnessed one degree Farenheit warming in the past 30 years. There is one more in the pipeline due to gases already in the air. Still another degree is certain because of energy infrastructure already in place, such as power plants and vehicles on the road. Three degrees will take us to a level at or just above the warmest in the past million years.” He noted that this level of warming is inevitable, and that cuts in emissions today would only be to limit further increases in temperature above and beyond what is already sure to occur. Not doing so, he argued, could be catastrophic.

The polar regions are especially vulnerable to changing environmental conditions. “The Arctic ecosystem is a very fragile one that is heavily dependent on patterns of temperature, snow, and ice that are now rapidly changing,” says Leitch. “It is especially obvious to the Inuit people who still live off the land and rely on ice for transportation.”

If the so-called “tipping point” is reached, it then unleashes what’s known in biological systems as a “positive feedback cycle.”

“We’ve got to keep our eye on it, because 10 years in the Arctic is what we’re going to get 30 years down the road [further south].” — Terry Prowse.

“Many effects of climate change are in fact positive feedback loops,” points out Leitch, “whereby a system responds in the same direction as a disturbance which results in an amplifying effect. For example, ice melt leads to increased ice melt, because the open water created will absorb solar energy which is normally reflected by the ice and snow.”

That is because ice is so reflective that 90 per cent of the sunlight that strikes it reflects off, removing energy (heat) with it. Ocean water acts in the opposite manner, absorbing 90 per cent of the energy it receives. That’s why the more energy the open Arctic Ocean retains, the warmer it gets — meaning that each kilometre of ice melts faster than the one preceding it. To illustrate that in numbers, according to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., the sea ice cover in 2005 was 20 per cent less than the average sea-ice cover in the Arctic between 1978 and 2000. The current rate of shrinkage is roughly eight per cent, meaning that there will be no ice by 2060. The Ice Data Center notes that the rate is increasing, and so it is entirely possible that we will be ice-free before that date.

Positive feedback works in the same way with permafrost. Permafrost is defined as land frozen continuously for two or more years; in the Arctic much of the permafrost has been frozen since the last Ice Age or something like eight to 10 thousand years ago, until recently. Hidden in this permanently frozen land are very high concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane, constantly being produced by natural processes but trapped in the ice. As it melts, the land releases gas back into the atmosphere, at rates that dwarf current levels of human emissions. Melting permafrost has the potential to let loose colossal amounts of carbon dioxide, contributing to more warming.

In the past, ominous warnings about a changing climate and a changing planet have been pegged as alarmist. Some politicians still attempt to paint scientifically produced scenarios in a similar light. But consensus is growing in the scientific community as never before. From the point of view of the North, Leitch says the situation is a serious one: “I think there should be genuine concern. Models predict that the entire Arctic could be icefree in summer in the next few decades. This will have huge impacts on animals and the ecosystem, not to mention northern people.”

If these predictions are correct, they will indeed be the canary in the coal mine. The rest of the world will be forced to take notice. But by then will it be too late?





Volume 94 Issue 13	The Official University of Manitoba Students' Newspaper Website	November 15, 2006

Home About Us Advertise Contact Staff Current Issue PDF Employment Letters to the Editor Meet the Staff Online Archives Personals Volunteer	Font Size Respond Email Print-Friendly It all starts at home Climate change already visible in Canada arctic ANDREW LODGE STAFF ILLUSTRATION TED BARKER Earlier this fall, a report commissioned by England’s Tony Blair caused perhaps the most significant stir yet among governments worldwide with respect to what many see as the impending catastrophe linked with climate change. In the report, former World Bank economist Sir Nicholas Stern clearly spelled out that, in addition to the disastrous ecological consequences of an artificially heated biosphere, a warmed planet could also cause a 20 per cent change in the global economy, exceeding even such economic crises as the Great Depression and the World Wars. Stern’s report was no doubt all the more compelling (and fastidious) for governments not committed to fighting climate change, since the prime argument behind not aggressively tackling climate change is precisely that it would negatively affect the economy. Now, according to a leading economist, not doing something about climate change will in itself have negative long-term economic consequences. Stern’s report sparked concern and uproar worldwide, yet another in a growing chorus of voices, both academic and grassroot, calling for serious steps to be taken to curb climate change. In the past week more than 22,000 people marched in London in response to the report and in advance of the Nov. 6-17 United Nations conference on environmental issues in Nairobi, Kenya. Also in the past week, University of Manitoba researcher Dan Leitch debarked from the Canadian Coast Guard’s icebreaker, the CCGS Amundsen. Leitch had been at sea for six weeks as part of an ongoing mission to study climate change in the Canadian Arctic. The Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study (CASES), is a multi-university research group funded by NSERC to gather data on fluctuations in the Arctic environment, especially sea ice, to better understand if and how it’s changing. In particular, Leitch examines the role contaminants play in various aspects of the region and how the status of these contaminants is changing along with the climate. “The main focuses this year were the Northwater Polynya and the Beaufort Sea, but the Northwest Passage, Foxe Basin, Gulf of Boothia, Davis Strait and some Labrador fjords were also studied intensively,” says Leitch. “It’s so beautiful up there and the opportunity to see such remote and amazing places makes it difficult to come back.” The planet’s polar regions are of great importance to researchers looking into a vast array of ecological trends. What occurs there can be something of a looking-glass through which to see what will happen, in different ways, to the rest of the planet in the near future. In a CBC Radio interview, University of Victoria Arctic researcher Terry Prowse puts it this way: “We often refer to the Arctic as the bellwether, or the canary in the coal mine. Well, that canary is coughing. We’ve got to keep our eye on it, because 10 “If you talk to any local in the North, there is no doubt that climate change is happening. They talk of animals that have shown up in recent years that local languages have no word for, because they are usually only found in warmer climates.” — Dan Leitch. years in the Arctic is what we’re going to get 30 years down the road [further south].” In the past several years, voices of Inuit residents of Nunavut, reported in the Iqaluit-based Nunatsiaq News, have been pointing to rapid and increasing changes to the world in which they live in, and to which they are acutely interconnected. For Leitch, a relative newcomer to the Arctic, signs of change are nonetheless visible everywhere. “I have seen areas of incredible permafrost melt and coastal erosion, both of which have been increasing lately. On this passage of the Northwest Passage, we barely saw any ice at all, which I understand is quite rare for the end of October.” Leitch and the CASES crew were aboard the last ship to pass through the Fury and Hecla straight — “and we didn’t even see any ice. Normally the strait is impassable even in the middle of the summer, according to our captain who’s been working up there for 20-odd years. We also passed through the narrow Bellot Strait” — the northernmost part of continental North America — “which is also normally packed with ice.” Time spent on the Amundsen does not mean being perpetually at sea. Leitch and other members of the crew had the opportunity to visit several communities along the way. Over and over again, he hears similar stories: “In Labrador, we saw 11 polar bears in one fjord. Locals tell us that even 20 years ago, polar bears were almost never seen there. They blame the lack of sea ice for pushing them on land. If you talk to any local in the North, there is no doubt that climate change is happening. They tell stories of hunters falling through the ice because it is thinner, there is less of it, and it is much more unpredictable. They also talk of animals that have shown up in recent years that local languages have no word for, because they are usually only found in warmer climate.” The idea of drastic climate change has now reached an unprecedented near-unanimity within the scientific community. In addition, while it's been an ongoing issue for some time, climate change is now fully mainstream; polls, both nationally and on the global stage, repeatedly show people showing greater concern for environmental issues. And in recent years, the alarming concept of a “tipping point,” a point past which there is no return, soto- speak — has become accepted parlance. Where that tipping point lays (or whether it has already been superseded for that matter) is still very much up for debate, but its existence is becoming increasingly recognized. Earlier this year, American based NASA’s chief climate scientist James Hansen, in an interview with Time magazine, suggested that “we are getting close to a tipping point, despite the fact that most people barely notice the warming yet. We have witnessed one degree Farenheit warming in the past 30 years. There is one more in the pipeline due to gases already in the air. Still another degree is certain because of energy infrastructure already in place, such as power plants and vehicles on the road. Three degrees will take us to a level at or just above the warmest in the past million years.” He noted that this level of warming is inevitable, and that cuts in emissions today would only be to limit further increases in temperature above and beyond what is already sure to occur. Not doing so, he argued, could be catastrophic. The polar regions are especially vulnerable to changing environmental conditions. “The Arctic ecosystem is a very fragile one that is heavily dependent on patterns of temperature, snow, and ice that are now rapidly changing,” says Leitch. “It is especially obvious to the Inuit people who still live off the land and rely on ice for transportation.” If the so-called “tipping point” is reached, it then unleashes what’s known in biological systems as a “positive feedback cycle.” “We’ve got to keep our eye on it, because 10 years in the Arctic is what we’re going to get 30 years down the road [further south].” — Terry Prowse. “Many effects of climate change are in fact positive feedback loops,” points out Leitch, “whereby a system responds in the same direction as a disturbance which results in an amplifying effect. For example, ice melt leads to increased ice melt, because the open water created will absorb solar energy which is normally reflected by the ice and snow.” That is because ice is so reflective that 90 per cent of the sunlight that strikes it reflects off, removing energy (heat) with it. Ocean water acts in the opposite manner, absorbing 90 per cent of the energy it receives. That’s why the more energy the open Arctic Ocean retains, the warmer it gets — meaning that each kilometre of ice melts faster than the one preceding it. To illustrate that in numbers, according to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., the sea ice cover in 2005 was 20 per cent less than the average sea-ice cover in the Arctic between 1978 and 2000. The current rate of shrinkage is roughly eight per cent, meaning that there will be no ice by 2060. The Ice Data Center notes that the rate is increasing, and so it is entirely possible that we will be ice-free before that date. Positive feedback works in the same way with permafrost. Permafrost is defined as land frozen continuously for two or more years; in the Arctic much of the permafrost has been frozen since the last Ice Age or something like eight to 10 thousand years ago, until recently. Hidden in this permanently frozen land are very high concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane, constantly being produced by natural processes but trapped in the ice. As it melts, the land releases gas back into the atmosphere, at rates that dwarf current levels of human emissions. Melting permafrost has the potential to let loose colossal amounts of carbon dioxide, contributing to more warming. In the past, ominous warnings about a changing climate and a changing planet have been pegged as alarmist. Some politicians still attempt to paint scientifically produced scenarios in a similar light. But consensus is growing in the scientific community as never before. From the point of view of the North, Leitch says the situation is a serious one: “I think there should be genuine concern. Models predict that the entire Arctic could be icefree in summer in the next few decades. This will have huge impacts on animals and the ecosystem, not to mention northern people.” If these predictions are correct, they will indeed be the canary in the coal mine. The rest of the world will be forced to take notice. But by then will it be too late?


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