2006 OSCAR Preview

Ajitpaul Mangat

Jake Gyllenhaal and Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain, courtesy of Focus Features

There are several Academy Award “should win” lists floating about, and the Manitoban would feel left out if we didn’t add our own. So here are the top picks for 2006. And Mr. Oscar should go to. . . .

BEST PICTURE

Good Night, and Good Luck and Munich are arguably the two best pictures nominated this year, but not enough people saw them for either to have a chance of winning. Capote is a worthy nominee, but the film will likely have to settle for an acting Oscar (Philip Seymour Hoffman, Best Actor), as another cowboy-themed movie nominated this year has more fan fare.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences loves a good story, and consequently the members often vote for a great story over a great movie. That will again be the case this year, as two mediocre films, Brokeback Mountain and Crash, will compete for the “Best Picture” Oscar. Although Brokeback Mountain is a generic love story and Crash is extremely manipulative and contrived at times, the fact that each deals with controversial topics, homosexuality and racism, respectively, means either winning would give the Oscars the big, buzz-worthy story they so desperately want. In terms of who will triumph, look to Brokeback Mountain to carry its momentum from winning the Golden Globe to winning an Academy Award.

Will Win Brokeback Mountain
Should Win Good Night, and Good Luck

BEST LEAD ACTOR

Philip Seymour Hoffman gives the best performance of the year, and a win by him would be long overdue, as he has become one of the best and most underrated actors of his generation. Hoffman shines in his role as Truman Capote. Not only does he replicate Capote’s unique physical mannerisms, he also does something far greater: he makes the audience feel the private emotional and moral struggles Capote experiences.
Heath Ledger gives the second best performance of the year as a fearful cowboy who has to deal with his forbidden desires. Joaquin Phoenix, a Golden Globe winner, relative unknown Terrence Howard and surprise nominee David Strathairn will have to be content with nominations, as none have a shot at winning.

Will Win Philip Seymour Hoffman
Should Win Philip Seymour Hoffman

Philip Seymour Hoffman as Truman Capote, United Artists

BEST LEAD ACTRESS

Reese Witherspoon gives the best performance by an actress this year. Witherspoon is wonderful as June Carter Cash, wife of Johnny Cash, as she runs the gamut from funny and tender to strong and serious. But most importantly, she is believable in the role, as she sings all her own songs. The only likely competition for Witherspoon will be Felicity Huffman, who gives a memorable performance as a pre-operative male-to-female transsexual who takes an unexpected journey when she learns that she fathered a son.
Of the remaining nominees, Keira Knightley gives the best performance as the smart, sassy Elizabeth Bennet. Knightley is very convincing in a difficult role that requires her at various times to be playful, tempestuous and vulnerable. Charlize Theron and Judi Dench, each previous Oscar winners, have not created enough buzz with their performances to have a shot at winning. The biggest snub this year comes in this category, as Joan Allen, inexplicably, was not nominated for her role in The Upside of Anger, in which she gives a powerhouse performance.

Will Win Reese Witherspoon
Should Win Reese Witherspoon

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

This category is a two-person race with Matt Dillon and William Hurt, who gives the best nine-minute performance of the year. Paul Giamatti won the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) award, which is traditionally the best indication of who will win acting Oscars, but there appears to be a SAG backlash by the Academy as of late. Also hurting Giamatti’s chances is that his film was released a long time ago and may be out of the voters’ minds. Jake Gyllenhaal’s chances improved mightily with his BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards) win, and if the Academy decides to make it a Brokeback Mountain night, he could pull out a win. George Clooney appears to have the most momentum of the nominees with his Golden Globe victory. Although, Clooney could take home the Oscar simply because of his star power.

Will Win George Clooney
Should Win William Hurt

Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line, Fox 2000 Pictures/ Treeline Films.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

This is traditionally the most unpredictable category, and that continues this year. Frances McDormand is excellent in her film but will be hard-pressed to win, as the other nominees have more memorable performances. Like Paul Giamatti, Michelle Williams’ SAG win may hurt her because of the Academy backlash. Catherine Keener’s work in Capote is excellent but overshadowed by Philip Seymour Hoffman. This leaves the favourite and Golden Globe winner Rachel Weisz, and the dark horse, Amy Adams. Weisz has the advantage because she is a bigger celebrity and therefore more recognizable, but Adams gives the better performance. It is a toss-up, but since more people saw Weisz’s film, look for her to take home the award.

Will Win Rachel Weisz
Should Win Amy Adams

BEST DIRECTOR

This is a one-person race with Ang Lee as the clear-cut favourite. Lee has won almost every award a director can win this year, including the BAFTA, the Golden Globe, the National Board of Review and most importantly the DGA (Directors Guild of America Award), which is the best indication of who will win the Oscar.

Will Win Ang Lee
Should Win Ang Lee