Province markets MB economy

But the “Manitoba advantage” may not be so advantageous: prof

Tessa Vanderhart Staff

Manitoba’s economy is doing better than ever, says the province — as long as you don’t compare us to Alberta.

In advance of the annual provincial budget, the department of finance released the “Manitoba Advantage.” Colin Lemoine, a spokesperson for finance, explained that the “Advantage” is a usual component of each provincial budget, made into a brochure and website to celebrate particularly good results for the province.

This year, it highlights the population influx to Manitoba, a relatively new development: only for the last two years has the province experienced a net gain of people.

Lemoine related this growth to new immigration initiatives, as well as better retention rates of Manitobans.

He also cited the relatively low cost of living, low incidence of debt, low energy prices and low taxes.

The website touts the high cottage ownership of Manitobans, as well — the province boasts the highest rates in the country.

Manitoba has the second-highest per capita expenditures on culture, after Quebec, and marginally better than Saskatchewan.

Fletcher Baragar, a professor in the department of economics, said that there is merit to most of the provincial government’s claims.

“Especially compared to the more popular and populist places, like Alberta and BC . . . housing costs are cheaper in Manitoba. That’s a big part of peoples’ budgets,” said Baragar.

Other, less influential costs, including cheaper car insurance, no health-care premiums and lower taxes (particularly for low earners), still do have an impact, he noted.

“In that sense, there is enough to support the province’s claims,” he said. “On the other hand, of course, consumers and individuals are not just concerned with what their costs of living are, but what their incomes are.”

And on that side of the ledger, said Baragar, Manitoba does not fare as well: not only are wages lower, but there are fewer and generally less lucrative employment opportunities, particularly with Manitoba’s famously low unemployment rate.

Manitoba has always had a net population growth, but emigration is largely international. Historically, Baragar noted, Manitoba had a very high rate of loss to other provinces, though lately that trend has been in decline, which is why the population has been growing at an increasing rate.

“There are some secure economic prospects for Manitoba that are keeping [Manitobans] here,” he said.

But, he explained, the Manitoba economy does not grow as quickly as the boom economies, nor does it deflate as rapidly as others might. It’s relatively stable, which means that all changes are relative —even linked to — economic changes in other, more volatile, economies.

“The good times aren’t quite as good here, but the bad times aren’t quite as bad,” he said.

While Alberta booms, however, capital, money, and skilled workers are pulled West — and, Baragar noted, Manitobans are quite mobile.

He added that for the most part, Manitoba does have better prospects than the East, except for in certain fields of the economy, where bigger centres have a clear advantage.

“It’s hard for a smaller centre, and a smaller province like Manitoba, to be able to compete at that level.”

In response to the eternal question for students — to stay or go — Baragar made the economic reality very clear.

“The short-term economic prospects are probably best in provinces like Alberta and BC, because those are booming economies: there is a lot of money flowing in, and there is a lot of job creation going on there, so for people that have various sets of skills, in general, those are probably the best provinces to be.”