Back to the USSR?
The political struggles in Ukraine
I would like to emphasize how social diversity in Ukraine, which is one of the largest countries in Europe, affects its political and economic development. For those of you who are not familiar with Ukraine, I will give a brief description of the country. Ukraine borders seven countries and has access to the Black Sea. The population of Ukraine is 48 million. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Ukrainian government announced the move towards democracy and a market economy. As a result, it has opened up its borders for foreign investments. Let us stop here and look back at what has been achieved since 1991. Clearly, there are major achievements such as the fall of the Communist regime, privatization, and the inflow of foreign investments. However, if these achievements are compared to the level of progress in some other developing countries in central and Eastern Europe, we can see that Ukraine is far behind economically. For example, the level of foreign investments in Ukraine is much lower than in most of the post-communist countries in Eastern Europe. Several central and eastern European countries are joining the European Union next year, while Ukraine seems to be in a constant process of negotiation with the European Union without clear and positive results.
Social diversity in Ukraine
I would like to discuss the impact of social diversity in Ukraine on its current economic development. First of all, there is wide ethnic diversity in Ukraine. Ukrainians are not the only ethnic group. The second largest ethnic group is Russian (around 20 per cent). There are many other ethnic groups including Jews, Polish, Tatars and Romanians. However, I would like to concentrate on the importance of the two largest groups: Ukrainians and Russians. We need to look back at the recent history of Ukraine in order to assess the current impact of ethnic diversity on development. Many historians fail to emphasize the difference in the history of the country's major regions. The western part of Ukraine used to be a part of Poland for many decades until it was taken over by Soviets in the middle of 20th century. However, the west Ukrainians have managed to preserve the language, culture and traditions that were suppressed by ruling regimes. They have been fighting for years for the independence from Poland and Russia. On the other hand, eastern Ukraine has always had close links with the Russian Empire, and the Russian language and culture were promoted for many years over the Ukrainian culture and language, which were highly suppressed. Lastly, I would like to say a few words about Crimea, which has a special status in Ukraine and is officially called the Republic of Crimea. Its territory was occupied by the Russian Empire for many years and served as the southern stronghold of the empire. Officially Crimea was "given" to the Soviet Ukraine after the Second World War. It is mainly populated with ethnic Russian and Crimean Tatars who were deported by Stalin and now are coming back.
This is a brief introduction of Ukrainian history, which is highly debatable even now between the right-wing and the left-wing parties. I am not a historian; I just want you to keep this introduction in mind in order to understand the current political development in Ukraine.
Officially, the government of Ukraine is in favour of democracy and a free market. However, it remains one of the most corrupted countries in the world with one of the lowest levels of foreign investments in central and eastern Europe. So, what went wrong? Why is Ukraine not progressing in its economic development? First of all, most of the eastern European countries, including the Baltic states, the Czech Republic and Poland, elected democratic presidents immediately after the fall of communism at the end of 1980s. Ukraine was not so lucky. The first president of Ukraine claimed to be a democrat, but used to serve as the top bureaucrat for the Communist Party of the former USSR. However, the first president of Ukraine could have been the former dissident Mr. Chernovyl, the leader of the Ukrainian opposition, who lost the first election in 1991. My opinion on why he lost the election will be explained later on.
Right from the start, the independent Ukraine had a president who was not willing to carry out democratic change in the country. As a result, at the beginning of 1990s, the country experienced hyperinflation and a sharp decline in production and standard of living. The second president of Ukraine, who was elected in 1994, had a similar political background. Again, Mr. Chernovyl lost the election. Unfortunately, he died in a tragic and mysterious car accident before the third presidential election in 1998 when Leonid Kuchma was re-elected. Foreign observers reported lots of turmoil during the election. The next presidential election is scheduled for the fall 2004. There has been a great amount of pressure put on the Ukrainian opposition, whose leader is likely to win the presidential election next year, according to the various polls.
The leader of the opposition stands out on the current political arena in Ukraine as one of the few politicians who can really bring changes to Ukraine and who has the highest support from the people to run for presidency. However, it is not clear that the presidential election next year will be open and democratic. Despite the negative situation in the political arena in Ukraine, there is definitely some economic progress that has been made recently.
The "Russian" east
I would like to explain the differences between western and eastern Ukraine. I believe these differences are the main obstacle to successful economic development in Ukraine.
The eastern part of Ukraine is highly populated and much more industrialized than the western part. Most of the cities in eastern Ukraine have had strong links with Russia for centuries. Russian culture, literature and the language have existed in eastern Ukraine for many years and became even stronger during the Soviet era. At the same time, Ukrainians who have been opposed to the invasion of Russian culture have been suppressed for years, first by Russian Tsars and later on by the Soviet regime. As a result, the majority of people speak Russian and Russian culture is much more developed than Ukrainian culture in eastern Ukraine. Moreover, Russia is seen as a friendly state and not as an alien. The majority of elderly people still vote for the Communist Party of Ukraine. People in their forties and fifties, either vote for the current regime because they do not see any alternatives in the political arena or they do not vote at all. Many people between the ages of late twenties to late thirties managed to earn quick money when the markets were poorly regulated in the middle of 1990s. They either support the current regime or, if they have lost their money due to the high level of corruption and chaotic nature of businesses in Ukraine, do not vote due to the lack of politicians who can represent them. Many of the young voters, aged between 18 and 25, do not participate in elections. Most of them believe that the current way of life is normal for a developing country. Many of them assume that corruption and bribery are acceptable.
The "right-wing" West
The situation in western Ukraine is different. It used to be a part of Poland for many decades, so its Gothic architecture is reminiscent of Western Europe rather than eastern Ukraine (which was influenced by Russian styles). The Ukrainian language and culture had been under the constant threat of being suppressed by Poland and by the Soviet regime. The collapse of the Soviet Union has been seen as one of the brightest events in western Ukrainian history. Despite the tyranny of the occupying regimes, Ukrainian people have managed to preserve their culture, traditions and language. The voting patterns between the people do not vary as much as they do in the eastern part. Most of the people support what are called the right-wing parties whose key element of their agendas is Ukrainian nationalism. The right-wing parties in Ukraine are different from right-wing parties in the West. Ukrainian right-wingers do not represent a rich class of the society. However they are in favour of national interests and want the country to be a part of the European Union. They see Russia as the main enemy of Ukraine. These parties represent the main opposition to the current regime, especially after the decline of support for the Communist Party in the last parliamentary elections in 2002.
The paradox of the Ukrainian opposition
All the current polls show that the majority of people in both eastern and western Ukraine are not in favour of the current regime. However, political change cannot occur without the united support of the whole population. Western Ukraine is united in their support for right-wing parties, but eastern Ukraine hardly gives any support to these parties. Could we blame eastern Ukrainians for this? As I mentioned above, young eastern Ukrainians do not see the need for change and middle-aged people either support the current regime or do not vote at all. However, the blame should be put on the right-wing opposition themselves. Why is the Ukrainian opposition not united? The right-wing parties do not represent eastern Ukrainians. As a result, the right-wing opposition lost presidential elections in 1991 and 1994. They did not have the support from eastern Ukraine and Crimea who perceive their anti-Russian policies as unacceptable. Since the collapse of the USSR, the pressure about whether or not to keep the Russian language remains very high. The truth is that the Ukrainian opposition cannot accept the reality that a high number of Ukrainians speak Russian. In fact, the population of Ukraine consists of approximately 20 per cent native Russians, and approximately 50 per cent of the population in Ukraine speak Russian. Eastern Ukraine did not support the opposition in 1991 and 1994 because their leader, Mr. Chernovyl, who was very famous and respected, failed to represent eastern Ukrainians and get their support. In fact, there was so much fear that the Russian language would be banned from social life and the Russian culture would be suppressed, that he won little support in the highly populated eastern Ukraine. The eastern Ukrainians did not vote in 1991 for the right-wing party because of the fear of total "Ukrainisation." The same right-wing party had failed to change their strategy in the presidential election in 1994 and lost the election. As I mentioned earlier, Mr. Chernovyl died before the presidential elections in 1998 in a tragic car accident and, as a result, the right-wing opposition did not gain many votes.
The current right-wing opposition seems to be united. The current leader, Mr. Yuschenko, who will likely run for president, has very strong support in every part of Ukraine. He has made a few good decisions to attract votes from the eastern part of Ukraine. For example, he has acknowledged that Russia is a strategic partner. Moreover, he has established a strong relation with one of the pro-western political parties in Russia. This party speaks up for the protection of the Russian language and culture in Ukraine. Whether it was a political trick in order to gain more support or a genuine desire to understand the point of view of eastern Ukrainians, we will see during his presidential campaign, which may start this winter.
My main question is, why does it take so long to recognize the rights of a large number of Ukrainians to use the language they want to use, and have the culture they want to have? Canada has two official languages, Belgium has two, and Switzerland has four. Right-wingers usually reply that Ukrainian history is different. I suppose that in a democratic society that the right-wing opposition claims to believe in, people should have freedom of choice. People should not be divided into ethnic and language groups. This is especially important for political parties who claim to be pro-western, democratic and anti-Soviet. Otherwise, we may go back to the USSR...